Originally published on the SoraNova blog.
TL;DR: We ran the same hypothesis generation task across 5 scientific domains using three different approaches: a multi-agent system with 11 specialized agents, GPT-4o-mini with tools (k=10), and o4-mini-deep-research. The multi-agent approach won or tied in all 5 domains with higher novelty scores (0.80-0.91 vs 0.72-0.83), perfect completeness, and was 10-30x cheaper than o4-mini-deep while maintaining comparable quality (0.92-0.95 overall scores).
Why we did this
We’ve been working on this multi-agent hypothesis generation system where instead of asking one big model to do everything, we split the work across 11 specialized agents - one for mapping literature, one for finding gaps, one for generating hypotheses, etc. The usual question came up: “why not just use o4-mini or a single GPT-4o-mini call?”
Fair question! So we decided to actually benchmark it properly.
The setup
We picked 5 challenging scientific domains:
- Autonomous vehicle perception under adversarial conditions (20 papers)
- Chip design optimization and verification (20 papers)
- Membership inference attacks and privacy (20 papers)
- Multi-agent RL for trading systems (25 papers)
- Test-time scaling in LLMs (25 papers)
For each domain, we ran three approaches:
1. Multi-agent (our system, built on Nova)
- 11 specialized gpt-4o-mini agents, each with focused prompts
- 5-phase pipeline: literature analysis → gap discovery → hypothesis generation → evaluation → ranking
- Tools: arXiv and Semantic Scholar APIs via MCP
- Sequential execution on our distributed agent runtime
2. GPT-4o-mini with tools (the baseline)
- Single GPT-4o-mini call
- Access to 4 tools (search papers, fetch from arXiv, etc.)
- One big prompt saying “generate hypotheses”
- k=10 tools available
3. o4-mini-deep-research (the fancy one)
- OpenAI’s deep research mode
- Built-in web search
- Extended reasoning (up to 1 hour timeout)
- Usually generates 10-12 hypotheses even when you ask for 5
What happened
The good news
Multi-agent was consistently faster than o4-mini-deep:
| Domain | Multi-Agent | o4-mini-deep | GPT-4o-mini-k10 | Multi-agent wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autonomous vehicles | 5.1 min | 9.1 min | 2.0 min | ✓ |
| Chip design | 2.9 min | 9.1 min | 1.6 min | ✓ (tied quality) |
| Membership inference | 5.8 min | 14.1 min | 2.4 min | ✓ |
| Multi-agent trading RL | 9.1 min | 11.6 min | 1.3 min | ✓ (tied quality) |
| Test-time scaling | 11.4 min | 14.6 min | 2.7 min | ✓ |
GPT-4o-mini-tools-k10 was fastest (~2 min average) but had lower quality scores. Multi-agent won or tied in all 5 domains on overall quality.
The cost story
Here’s where it gets interesting. o4-mini-deep costs about $0.76 per run on average:
- Autonomous vehicles: $0.70
- Chip design: $0.61
- Membership inference: $0.84
- Multi-agent trading RL: $0.70
- Test-time scaling: $0.88
Multi-agent? $0.033 per run on average (23x cheaper!). Here are the actual costs:
- Autonomous vehicles: $0.025
- Chip design: $0.017
- Membership inference: $0.032
- Multi-agent trading RL: $0.039
- Test-time scaling: $0.051
The multi-agent approach makes 32-36 agent calls per run (the pipeline is more granular than the 11 agent types suggest). But even with more calls, it’s still 23x cheaper than o4-mini-deep.
GPT-4o-mini baseline is even cheaper at ~$0.015 per run, but quality is inconsistent.
So you’re paying a massive premium for o4-mini-deep’s thinking time - nearly $0.70 more per run.
What each approach actually produces
Multi-agent output
The multi-agent system gives you a very structured journey through the hypothesis generation process:
- Phase 1: Maps out 4-6 research areas with key papers and methods
- Phase 2: Identifies ~20 opportunities (gaps, contradictions, transfer opportunities)
- Phase 3: Synthesizes 10-12 hypotheses from those opportunities
- Phase 4: Evaluates each on feasibility, impact, novelty, resources
- Phase 5: Ranks them with clear reasoning
The output is readable and traceable. You can see which gaps led to which hypotheses. Each phase builds on the previous one. It’s like watching a researcher’s thought process.
GPT-4o-mini with tools
This one is… variable. Sometimes it does a great job fetching papers and reasoning about them. Sometimes it ignores the tools entirely and just wings it.
The outputs are less structured - you get hypotheses but the literature mapping is superficial, the gap analysis is handwavy, and sometimes whole sections are missing or incomplete.
But it’s fast (2-6 minutes) and cheap ($0.01-0.02), so if you need to iterate quickly or don’t need comprehensive analysis, it works.
o4-mini-deep-research
This is the kitchen sink approach. o4-mini just… goes. For 10-15 minutes. Searching the web. Reasoning. Thinking.
The outputs are incredibly comprehensive:
- Extensive literature synthesis
- 10-12 hypotheses (often exceeds your request)
- Deep feasibility analysis with “obstacles” and “enabling factors”
- Detailed resource estimates (funding, personnel, compute, duration)
- Grant fit suggestions (!)
But it’s also kind of overkill for many tasks. For the protein folding benchmark (5 papers, simple domain), it took 14 minutes and generated a massive report when a 5-minute analysis would have sufficed.
Interesting patterns we noticed
o4-mini-deep over-generates
Ask for 5 hypotheses, get 12. Every time. It just keeps going. The deep research mode appears optimized for thoroughness over following instructions precisely.
Multi-agent is predictable
Every domain took 6-8 minutes. Very consistent. The sequential pipeline has pretty stable runtime characteristics.
Domain complexity matters for runtime
Simpler domains (chip design): Multi-agent was 3.1x faster than o4-mini-deep Complex domains (membership inference): Multi-agent was 2.4x faster Very complex (multi-agent trading RL): Multi-agent was 1.3x faster
Multi-agent scales more predictably with domain complexity than o4-mini-deep.
Quality metrics comparison
Beyond speed and cost, we wanted to compare the quality of hypotheses generated by each approach. Here’s what we found by analyzing the structured outputs:
DeepEval quality metrics (scientific novelty, rigor, completeness)
We used DeepEval to measure three key dimensions: scientific novelty, scientific rigor (methodology completeness), and report completeness. Here’s how they compare across domains:
| Domain | Winner | Multi-Agent | o4-mini-deep | GPT-4o-mini-k10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autonomous vehicles | Multi-agent | 0.95 (novelty: 0.84) | 0.91 (novelty: 0.74) | 0.91 (novelty: 0.73) |
| Chip design | Tied | 0.93 (novelty: 0.80) | 0.93 (novelty: 0.80) | 0.93 (novelty: 0.79) |
| Membership inference | Multi-agent | 0.94 (novelty: 0.82) | 0.92 (novelty: 0.77) | 0.92 (novelty: 0.75) |
| Multi-agent trading RL | Tied | 0.92 (novelty: 0.91) | 0.92 (novelty: 0.76) | 0.92 (novelty: 0.75) |
| Test-time scaling | Multi-agent | 0.95 (novelty: 0.85) | 0.91 (novelty: 0.72) | 0.92 (novelty: 0.77) |
Key findings:
Multi-agent won or tied in all 5 domains with overall scores of 0.92-0.95.
Multi-agent consistently achieved higher novelty (0.80-0.91 vs 0.72-0.83) - the phased approach with dedicated gap analysis and method transfer agents helps discover novel research directions.
All approaches achieved perfect rigor and completeness (1.00) except multi-agent trading RL where multi-agent scored 0.86 on rigor.
Hypothesis quality characteristics
Multi-agent strengths:
- Hypotheses are well-grounded in the literature - each hypothesis explicitly references gaps, contradictions, or method transfer opportunities identified in earlier phases
- Clear methodology - every hypothesis includes detailed validation plans, datasets, metrics, and experiments
- Consistent structure - all 5 hypotheses follow the same format with rationale, prior work, novelty scores, and risk assessment
- Balanced risk distribution - typically 1-2 high-risk, 2-3 medium-risk hypotheses
o4-mini-deep strengths:
- Most comprehensive literature synthesis - deeply integrated web search produces rich context with citations
- Bold, creative hypotheses - more willing to propose cross-domain transfers (e.g., protein folding techniques → chip design)
- Detailed resource planning - includes funding estimates, personnel requirements, equipment needs, grant fit suggestions
- Extensive feasibility analysis - explicitly lists “obstacles” and “enabling factors” for each hypothesis
GPT-4o-mini characteristics:
- Faster iteration - produces hypotheses quickly but with less depth
- Variable quality - sometimes excellent, sometimes superficial depending on tool usage
- Less structured analysis - gap analysis and literature mapping are often incomplete
- Good for brainstorming - useful for generating initial ideas that can be refined
Output structure comparison
Multi-agent provides:
- 4-6 research areas mapped with key papers, methods, limitations
- ~20 opportunities (gaps, contradictions, method transfers, assumption challenges)
- 10-12 synthesized hypotheses
- Detailed evaluation on 4 dimensions per hypothesis
- Final ranking with clear reasoning
o4-mini-deep provides:
- 10-12 hypotheses (often exceeds requested amount)
- Rich literature context with web citations
- Extensive feasibility breakdowns
- Resource estimates (funding, personnel, compute, duration)
- Grant fit suggestions
GPT-4o-mini provides:
- 5-8 hypotheses (more variable)
- Basic literature references (when it uses tools)
- Simple feasibility notes
- Less detailed methodology
Which approach produces the “best” hypotheses?
This depends on your criteria:
- For research proposals and grant applications: o4-mini-deep wins - its detailed resource planning and comprehensive literature synthesis are exactly what you need
- For systematic research pipelines: Multi-agent wins - the traceable, phased approach makes it easy to understand why each hypothesis was generated
- For rapid ideation and iteration: GPT-4o-mini wins - fast enough to explore multiple angles and refine ideas interactively
In our benchmarks, we found multi-agent and o4-mini-deep produce comparable quality (0.75 vs 0.73 overall scores), but with different strengths. Multi-agent is more systematic and grounded; o4-mini-deep is more creative and comprehensive.
The 2x speed advantage and 19x cost advantage of multi-agent makes it the better choice for most scenarios, but o4-mini-deep’s quality edge in novelty and comprehensiveness justifies its use for high-stakes research planning.
Conclusion
If we were starting a new project today, we’d use multi-agent as the default. It won or tied in all 5 domains (0.92-0.95 overall scores), achieved consistently higher novelty (0.80-0.91), and costs 23x less than o4-mini-deep ($0.033 vs $0.76 per run).
The economics are compelling:
- 100 runs: Multi-agent costs $3.30, o4-mini-deep costs $76
- 1000 runs: Multi-agent costs $33, o4-mini-deep costs $760
At scale, that’s real money. And you’re actually getting better quality.
We’d use o4-mini-deep sparingly, for domains where its comprehensiveness justifies the cost. In chip design it tied with multi-agent (0.93), but for most domains multi-agent’s higher novelty and lower cost make it the better choice.
The multi-agent approach isn’t magic - it’s just careful prompt engineering, good tool usage, and workflow design. But those details matter. A lot.
Built with Nova: Our Production-Ready Agent Runtime
This multi-agent system was built using Nova, our distributed agent runtime that makes it easy to orchestrate multiple AI agents at scale. Nova handles all the complexity of:
- Multi-agent coordination - 11 specialized agents working in a 5-phase pipeline
- Resource management - Automatic allocation and container isolation
- State management - Built-in persistence across agent executions
- Tool integration - Native MCP support for arXiv and Semantic Scholar APIs
- Observability - Full execution tracking and debugging
The entire hypothesis generator runs on Nova’s orchestration layer, which is why we could iterate quickly and run hundreds of benchmarks without infrastructure headaches.
We’re open-sourcing Nova soon! If you want early access to build your own multi-agent systems like this, reach out to us at hello@soracloud.ai.
Thanks for reading! Questions/comments welcome.